Day 7: The composite + the fast version

Six signals → one score → 4,200 orgs in 4 seconds.

Yesterday

Yesterday you learned the last of the six atomic signals. Today they assemble.

Why this signal matters

The composite is the framework. A startup scoring 5/6 with sustained acceleration over 14 days closes within 21–47 days about 38% of the time — roughly 5x the base rate from the SSRN panel.

The 5-minute exercise

1Commit velocity ratio > 1.3 → +1
2Top contributor < 50% AND ≥4 contributors with 10+ commits → +1
3Dependents graph has >50 external dependents → +1
4README updated in last 60 days with substantive diff → +1
53+ new repos in last 30 days, looking like platform components → +1
6PRs closed ÷ Issues opened (last 30d) > 1.5 → +1

What you’re filtering for

Score 5 of 6 = strong fundraise-precursor profile. Score 6 of 6 with 14-day sustained acceleration = ~38% close-within-47-days rate (vs ~7% base rate).

Edge case

A startup scoring 6/6 on a single repo but the org-level reading is 2/6 — that's a single product break-out inside an otherwise quiet org. Different bet than an org-wide acceleration. Read both layers.

Bonus

Manual version takes ~30 minutes per startup. Monitoring 30 startups manually is a 15-hour week. The fast version runs the same six signals plus a seventh (signal-type classification — hiring burst vs infra buildout vs deploy spike vs framework migration) across 4,200 orgs continuously. Same framework, different scale.

Tomorrow

Week 1 closes today: you can now read the framework. Week 2 starts tomorrow — applying the composite to three real candidates from your own pipeline.

Checkpoint — Week 1 closes today

You’re 23% through. The full curriculum is permanent at every /challenge/<slug> URL — bookmark this page if you want to revisit the procedure later.

Curriculum: /challenge · Methodology: /methodology · Paper: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558

The 5-minute exercise

1Commit velocity ratio > 1.3 → +1

2Top contributor < 50% AND ≥4 contributors with 10+ commits → +1

3Dependents graph has >50 external dependents → +1

4README updated in last 60 days with substantive diff → +1

53+ new repos in last 30 days, looking like platform components → +1

6PRs closed ÷ Issues opened (last 30d) > 1.5 → +1