What is VC Deal Flow Signal?

VC Deal Flow Signal is a data product that tracks startup engineering acceleration using public GitHub data. It monitors commit velocity, contributor growth, and repository expansion across 20 startup sectors to surface breakout engineering teams before they appear on the funding radar. Engineering acceleration signals have historically preceded fundraise announcements by three to six weeks.

How much does VC Deal Flow Signal cost?

VC Deal Flow Signal offers a free Signal Report — this week's top 5 breakout startups delivered free after email confirmation, then weekly updates. The Dashboard beta is EUR 9.97/month and gives access to 85+ ranked startups across all 20 sectors with filtering by stage, geography, and signal type. There is no annual commitment required.

How often is the data updated?

Data is refreshed every Monday morning. The GitHub API is queried for commit activity, contributor counts, and repository metadata across all tracked sectors. Rankings, signal classifications, and trending pages are regenerated with each weekly data refresh.

How many startups does VC Deal Flow Signal track?

VC Deal Flow Signal currently tracks startups across 20 sectors including AI & Machine Learning, Fintech, Cybersecurity, Developer Tools, and more. The dataset covers 5 quarters of historical data, allowing investors to compare current signals against the startup's own baseline.

Is VC Deal Flow Signal investment advice?

No. VC Deal Flow Signal provides engineering acceleration data as a leading indicator for deal sourcing. It is not investment advice. Engineering signals should be one input among many in an investment decision — combined with market analysis, founder evaluation, and customer reference checks.

What is the difference between VC Deal Flow Signal and Crunchbase?

Crunchbase tracks funding announcements, team changes, and company profiles — all lagging indicators that appear after a round closes. VC Deal Flow Signal tracks engineering acceleration from public GitHub data — a leading indicator that typically appears 6-12 weeks before the fundraise announcement. The two are complementary: use VC Deal Flow Signal for early sourcing, Crunchbase for verification.

What is the Scout Game?

The Scout Game is a prediction game at /predict. Paste any GitHub org, call whether that team raises a funding round in the next 6 months, set your confidence level, and earn points when your call resolves correctly. Accuracy-based rank ladder (Curious, Scout, Sharp, Elite, Oracle) with a public global leaderboard. Free tier gets 3 predictions per month; paid tier gets 10. First 100 scouts receive a permanent Founder Scout badge.

How does the Scout Game score work?

Correct calls earn points proportional to your confidence: floor(confidence / 10), so a 99% correct call earns 9 points, a 50% correct call earns 5. Wrong calls deduct floor(confidence / 20), so high-confidence misses hurt more than cautious ones. Three or more consecutive correct calls trigger a streak bonus (+1 per additional correct). Expired predictions (no event in 6 months) award 0 points and do not penalize. Ranks are recalculated on every resolution — Scout requires 10 resolved calls at 40% accuracy, Sharp requires 25 at 55% (paid tier), Elite 50 at 65% (paid), Oracle 100 at 70% (top 1%).

Is there a free Scout Score badge for my GitHub README?

Yes. Drop this markdown into any GitHub profile or repo README: [![Scout Score](https://signals.gitdealflow.com/api/badge/scout/YOUR-USERNAME/svg)](https://signals.gitdealflow.com/badge-builder). The badge renders a shields.io-style SVG showing the user's live Scout Score (0-100) and rank (curious, scout, sharp, elite, oracle), computed live from their public starring history vs ~75 validated unicorn outcomes. Same look as Codecov, WakaTime, or GitHub Stats. The badge auto-updates within an hour as the user's starring history grows. Free, no signup, no telemetry. Builder UI with copy-paste markdown / HTML / BBCode lives at signals.gitdealflow.com/badge-builder.

Is there a Commit Momentum badge for my repo's README?

Yes, for any tracked GitHub org. Drop this markdown: [![Commit Momentum](https://signals.gitdealflow.com/api/badge/momentum/ORG/REPO/svg)](https://signals.gitdealflow.com/badge-builder). The badge shows the repo's current commit-velocity tier — cold, warming, hot, or breakout — computed from the live 14-day commit-velocity change vs the prior 14-day window. Tier thresholds: breakout >= +200%, hot >= +50%, warming >= -30%, cold below -30%. Untracked repos render an 'untracked' pill rather than a 404, so the badge degrades gracefully if a maintainer adds it before we have indexed their repo. Free, no signup. Cache: 24 hours on the CDN with hourly ETag revalidation through GitHub's camo proxy.

How do I find startups before they raise money?

Most deal-flow tools (Crunchbase, PitchBook, Dealroom) record fundraises after they close — by then the round is oversubscribed. Pre-fundraise discovery requires a leading signal that fires before the round closes. The most replicable public-data leading signal is engineering acceleration on GitHub: when a startup's commit velocity rises sharply alongside contributor count growth and infrastructure-buildout commits, that pattern has preceded fundraise announcements by 3-6 weeks across a 219-startup panel (SSRN preprint at ssrn.com/abstract=6606558). VC Deal Flow Signal ranks ~60 venture-backed startup orgs every Monday by this signal, free at signals.gitdealflow.com — no email needed for the public dashboard. Other leading signals include hiring-rate spikes (Forager.ai), founder-network triangulation (Harmonic.ai), and team-shape pattern matching, but those tools start at enterprise pricing. The free GitHub-momentum approach gets you 80% of the early-discovery edge at €0.

What signals predict a startup fundraise 3-6 weeks early?

Across the 219-startup panel published in our SSRN preprint (ssrn.com/abstract=6606558, dataset on Zenodo at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19650920 under CC BY 4.0), four GitHub-observable patterns showed lead times of three to six weeks before announced fundraises: (1) a 50%+ jump in commits-per-day across the org's most active repo over a 14-day rolling window; (2) contributor count rising 30%+ in the same window, indicating fresh engineering hires being onboarded; (3) infrastructure-shape commits (Dockerfile, kubernetes manifests, CI scripts, monitoring config) appearing in volume — a signal that the team is preparing to scale beyond prototype; (4) repository-creation bursts where a single org spins up 3+ new public repos in a month, often the precursor to a public launch tied to the round. Each signal alone is noisy; combining all four yields the strongest predictive lift in the dataset. The full classifier is open-source at github.com/kindrat86/gitdealflow-signal-classifier so anyone can replicate the analysis.

Q2 2026 Edition · Updated 2026-05-29

Crunchbase tells you the day they raised. We tell you 47 days before the deck.

If you write €5k–€50kchecks and want a calmer signal before the round gets obvious, you are in the right place.

Series A within 60d: 3.4×; more likely vs. velocity alone
Median lead time: 21–47d; before the round announces
Panel size: n=219; confirmed rounds, SSRN-indexed

140 venture-backed GitHub orgs ranked every week by commit velocity and contributor diversity — the two signals that, combined, drove the 3.4× Series-A lift in the SSRN panel of 219 confirmed fundraises (median lead time 21–47 days). It is a tool, not a fund — we surface the signal, you make the calls. Free to browse, built to give you a clearer read before the round gets obvious.

Start here if the site feels large

The best first page depends on the question. If you are comparing against Crunchbase, start with the wedge. If you need proof, start with research. If you want buyer-side clarity, start with the guide.

Why not just use Crunchbase?

Start with the timing-vs-verification wedge.

Show me the proof

Start with the public panel and methodology layer.

What should I buy first?

Start with the buyer-side evaluation page.

How this started · 30 seconds

Saturday afternoon, low autumn light through the kitchen window. The fan in the back of the laptop had stopped, the way it does when nothing is running. I had three open tabs: a small fintech’s GitHub, my notes file, and a draft email I’d written and not sent.

Their commit velocity had tripled in fourteen days. Four new contributors. Three new infrastructure repos. None of it was on Crunchbase yet.

I closed the laptop. Three weeks later they announced a $4M Series A.

This product is the version of me that wouldn’t have closed the laptop.

Long version on /origin — the same scene at full length, plus the three false beliefs it collapsed.

The 5-step shift · The discovery moment

How a late story became an earlier signal.

Long version (8-min read) →

Step 1 · Backstory
Ten years writing €5k–€50k angel cheques through warm intros — Athens, not San Francisco. Most mornings looked the same: laptop open, three Substack tabs, the WhatsApp group where deals showed up about a week after they had already closed.
Step 2 · Desire
Be the first investor in the room. Not the third one shown the deck. The first cheque earns the founder remembering you when the round oversubscribes; the third cheque is a wire transfer with no memory attached.
Step 3 · External wall
By the time a deck reached me through any warm intro, three other investors were already in. I told myself it was geography, network seniority, conference attendance — every explanation I could find that did not force me to change my method.
Step 4 · Internal shift
Stopped networking. Started reading commit graphs the way quants read SEC filings. Same public data everyone else had, a lens almost nobody was using — and that asymmetry, not a better rolodex, turned out to be the whole opportunity.
Step 5 · New opportunity
Code-side acceleration leads the deck by 21–47 days. The data is public. The lens was missing. Twenty-one to forty-seven days is the window where one Tuesday morning email lands in a founder's inbox before any other investor in any rolodex has the company on their radar.

This week's top movers

As of 2026-05-29

Gaming

castle-engine

+344%

14d velocity

Cross-platform (desktop, mobile, console, web) 3D and 2D game engine supporting many asset formats (glTF, X3D, Spine...)

40 commits / 14d24 contributorsDeploy frequency spikeSee sector ranking →

+200%

ava-labs

Web3

+130%

greenbone

Cybersecurity

See all 60+ ranked movers →·Get next Monday's signals by email

Who you become · The identity shift

You stop hearing the story late and start seeing the change earlier.

This shift is not about sounding smarter. It is about seeing what changed while the window is still calm enough to matter. Instead of relying on the same crowded surfaces as everyone else, you start with a public signal that gives you a cleaner read on timing before the round feels obvious.

The Wealth outcome

Better deals, written earlier, at cheque sizes that compound.

First investor on three breakouts a quarter — at €5–50k cheque sizes that survive a partner meeting because they're the talked-about deals.
Reply rate ~4× the warm-intro template, because you led with what the engineering team is shipping, not what the deck claims.
First-meeting-to-term-sheet timeline compressed from months to weeks, because the round opened *after* you were already in the conversation.

The Status outcome

The reputation of the analyst who calls it before the deck lands.

You notice the breakout while everyone else is still waiting for the familiar database update.
You send the email while the window is still calm enough to matter.
You carry a clearer timing signal into the conversation instead of repeating what the market already knows.

Read the long version on /identity — who the buyer was before, who they are after, and the seven shifts that take you from one to the other.

The category we’re defining

Code-Side Sourcing — a new sourcing channel for venture capital.

Code-Side Sourcing is the practice of using public repository-velocity data as a leading indicator of venture-stage outcomes — surfacing fundraises 21 to 47 days before pitch decks circulate. It runs alongside warm intros, decks, and databases — not in place of them.

Read the canonical definition at /code-side-sourcing — what it replaces, the five first principles, who practises it, and the open methodology that grounds it.

What this whole site argues

If commit-velocity acceleration is the most leading public signal in venture capital, then every other deal-flow source — pitch decks, AngelList, Crunchbase, warm intros — is a lagging indicator.

Read the long version on the 12-minute walkthrough or the 90-second pitch. Three objections, three breakdowns, the SSRN panel that proves the 21-to-47-day lead time.

The three objections every investor raises

And why each one is wrong.

#1 · Vehicle

“GitHub data is just noise.”

We don’t look at absolute numbers — only sharp deviations from each company’s own baseline. That isn’t noise, that’s a regime change.

#2 · Internal

“I have enough deal flow already.”

Your network shows you what other investors already see. We open the 21-to-47-day window before consensus forms.

#3 · External

“Public data isn’t edge.”

Quant funds make billions on SEC filings. The edge is in the lens, not the data. Zero investor tools package GitHub as deal flow.

Full breakdown on the long-form walkthrough.

Acceleration Watch · Free forever · One email a week

5 breakout startups, every Sunday — 47 days before the deck arrives.

Two boxes. Twenty seconds. The same engineering signal that preceded 219 confirmed Series A rounds in our SSRN-published panel — delivered to your inbox every Monday at 09:00 UTC.

Or peek first — no email required

Free game · 30 seconds

Score your taste

Paste your GitHub username. We'll show every unicorn you starred before the news broke.

Free game

Predict the next breakout

Pick any GitHub org. Get a 1–99% breakout score. Compete on the public leaderboard.

The stack · Founding-member rate

€1,728 of priced artefacts. €9.97 / month, locked forever.

Each line is anchored against what the same artefact costs elsewhere — Pitchbook for the dashboard tier, McKinsey-grade for the deep dives, hand-built for the watchlist. The total below is what a fund would spend assembling each piece standalone. The founding rate is what you pay once to lock the whole stack in before the public price hike.

Live Dashboard — 109 ranked orgs, refreshed Mondays 06:00 UTC€348 / yr
219-Startup Backtest CSV — the full SSRN panel, five quarters€297 once
Monthly Sector Deep-Dive PDF — 12 issues per year, your sector€588 / yr
Two Free Chrome Extensions — Crunchbase badge + VC GitHub Lookup€198 / yr value
Async Watchlist Build — 10 orgs matching your written thesis€297 once
Free MCP Server — 6 tools inside Claude / Cursor / WindsurfBundled, never gated
Methodology Vault — SSRN preprint + regression code, CC BY 4.0Open by default
30-Day Signal-or-It's-Free Guarantee — reply REFUND, no clawbackRisk-reversal bonus

Total priced value: €1,728
You pay: €9.97/mo

See the full pitch (12-min) →Or test on your sector for €7 →All 6 tiers →

Founding rate locked for the lifetime of your subscription. Public rate will rise to €49 / month once the founding cohort closes. Cancel anytime — guarantee covers the first 30 days, no questions.

The movement, member-side

Charter Cohort 2026 — 25 of 25 seats open.

The wins ledger shows the startups our methodology surfaced before fundraise. The Charter Cohort shows the investors reading those signals — public thesis, public picks, public scorecard. Pseudonymous handles welcome.

Open seat
AI Infrastructure Angel →
€5k – €25k angel checks · AI Infrastructure, AI Agents
Open seat
Dev Tools Syndicate Lead →
€100k – €500k syndicate · Developer Tools, Developer Platforms
Open seat
Technical SaaS Scout →
€25k – €100k active angel · Technical SaaS, Developer Tools
Open seat
Data Infrastructure Partner →
€500k – €2m small fund · Data Infrastructure, Developer Platforms

Claim a charter seat See all 25 seats

0 claimed · 25 open · 48-hour written review

What The Data Nerd believes

8polarities. If you nod through them, you’re my reader.

The founder character has to take a side. These are mine. If any of them feels wrong, this product is probably wrong for you and that’s honest.

1.
For: Public data is more valuable than private data.
Against: Edge from access.
Quant funds make billions on SEC filings. The filings are public. The model is not. The same is true of GitHub.
2.
For: Code is more honest than copy.
Against: The deck is the company.
A pitch deck is a marketing artifact written for the next round. A merge graph is the company's actual behaviour, updated daily.
3.
For: Anonymity is a credibility signal.
Against: Cult of personality.
If the signal needs a charismatic founder to land, the signal isn't strong enough. If we're right, the data carries the argument.
4.
For: €9.97/mo is a feature, not a price ceiling.
Against: Six-figure data subscriptions for six-person funds.
We'd rather have a thousand readers who tell five friends than a hundred enterprise contracts. The founding price is locked forever.
5.
For: Methodology before metrics.
Against: Black-box scores.
Every number on this site links to the formula that produced it. The /methodology page is the moat. If you can reproduce the regression, you can audit the claim. If we hide the formula we deserve to be ignored.
6.
For: False positives published in the same email as the wins.
Against: Curated case-study reels.
Every Tuesday digest names at least one signal that fired wrong the prior week, with the post-mortem inline. A vendor who never publishes a miss is a vendor with no calibration discipline. The /scorecard page is permanent and includes every miss.
7.
For: Async over live.
Against: Discovery-call theatre.
Two daily reply batches. No calendar links above the Sharp tier. A long written email beats a 30-minute call you scheduled to qualify yourself. If the question can be answered in writing, the call wastes the buyer's hour and the founder's anonymity at the same time.
8.
For: Distribution is a moat. Friction is the leak.
Against: Walled-garden datasets.
Every public surface has a markdown mirror at /md. Every page has an agent-card endpoint. The MCP server installs in one line. The OpenAPI spec is at a stable URL. We pay the cost of redundant discoverability so the reader, the agent, and the LLM all find us through whichever path fits them.

More on the character behind the methodology — the The Data Nerd character bible (parables, voice rules, where you’ll meet me).

TL;DRVC Deal Flow Signal (GitDealFlow) ranks 20 startup sectors by GitHub commit velocity every Monday — a quantitative code-side momentum signal computed from public GitHub data, distinct from startup accelerator programs (Y Combinator, Techstars). Data is free via JSON / CSV / RSS / MCP / A2A / NLWeb. The metric — sometimes called engineering acceleration on this site — has historically preceded fundraise announcements by three to six weeks.

Commit-velocity acceleration has preceded venture fundraise announcements by 3–6 weeks across the tracked dataset. (Methodology)
Free MCP server (npx @gitdealflow/mcp-signal) exposes 6 read-only tools to Claude, Cursor, and any MCP-compatible host. (agents.md)
140 startup signals across 20 sectors and 5 quarterly periods of history. (signals.json)

Cite as: VC Deal Flow Signal (signals.gitdealflow.com), Q2 2026 data. · Data current as of 2026-05-29.

What we're tired of watching

Five sentences. If any of them lands, you’re one of us.

We're tired of watching three-founder teams in Athens, Lagos, Bangalore, Tallinn, and São Paulo get passed over because their cap table doesn't read the right Slack groups.
We're tired of watching a developer-investor pull up a GitHub org at 11 p.m. — see the commit graph triple, see four new contributors join, see the infrastructure repos spin up — and then watch the round get announced three weeks later, led by a fund whose only edge was a warm intro that arrived four days before the public news.
We're tired of the lie that the best investments only flow through the people who can afford the right dinners.
We're not building a tool. We're rebuilding the shape of who gets capital first.
If you've ever closed a laptop and gone to bed because you weren't sure you'd earned the right to send a cold email — and three weeks later watched somebody else get into the round — this movement is for you.

Read the long version on the two-layer manifesto — what we believe, what we refuse, the seven pillars, the named enemy, who’s on the bus.

What we believe

The next generation of great investments will be found in data, not networks.

The best startups leave footprints in their code long before they leave footprints in the press. Our mission is to make engineering momentum visible to every investor — not just the ones with the right rolodex. A world where capital finds builders faster is a world where better products get built.

The enemy isn’t a fund or a competitor. It’s the warm-intro roulette — a sourcing system that rewards proximity to the right rolodex and punishes builders who happen to live three time zones away. We’re replacing that roulette with a public, reproducible, code-side signal anyone with curiosity can read.

Warm-intro roulette is the named enemy. If the system that’s been gating your deal flow for ten years is the system, not your network — does naming it change what you’d try next?

Where to start

You do not need a persona. You need the right starting point for this week.

If you just want one calm read every Sunday, start there. If you need names faster because a question is already live, take the faster lane. If you need something your team can reuse, start with the methodology. Same signal. Different urgency.

Start free

If you want one useful read each Sunday

Get the weekly watch when you want earlier signal without another dashboard. Read it in one sitting, keep the names worth revisiting, and ignore the rest.

Best first step

Free Acceleration Watch

Get the Sunday issue

Move faster

If a live question is already getting expensive

Use the 24-hour lane when you need a sharper read now. This is for the week when five names are no longer enough and you need the next shortlist while the timing still matters.

Best first step

First Look

Get a faster read

Reuse the method

If you need a workflow your team can defend

Start with the paper and buyer's guide when trust, repeatability, or internal sign-off matters more than speed. You get the logic, the thresholds, and the proof before you commit to a recurring lane.

Best first step

Methodology + buyer's guide

See how to verify it

This is for you if

You write 5–40 angel checks a year and want one extra leading indicator your network can’t give you.
You scout for a fund and need a Monday memo your principal respects, sourced from public, reproducible data.
You’re a developer who occasionally writes checks and wants the cleanest 5-name digest in your inbox every Sunday.
You read a methodology paper before you trust a metric.

This is not for you if

You’re a Series-B+ partner with a six-figure data budget — Harmonic, Tracxn, and Affinity are built for you, not us.
You want a tool that screens code-quality or runs founder background checks — that’s a different category.
You source exclusively from warm intros and don’t want a cold path to founders. Engineering signal opens cold lanes.
You believe public data has no edge. Our long-form pitch argues the opposite — if it doesn’t convince you, this isn’t the tool.

Sharp Tier 2026 — 1 of 8 fund spots taken · 7 open · application reviewed within 48 hours

Apply →

Three quick gut-checks before the price

If a 24-hour lead on the same ten ranked startups changed one cheque you write in the next 12 months — at a €5k–€50k angel range with a 3× exit on one in five — would that head-start be worth €97/month?
If you stayed the engineer who reads commit logs for fun — never had to turn into a warm-intro-Tetris partner — and the signal still found the founders before consensus did, would €9.97/month be a fair trade?
If the founding rate locks forever for everyone who joins before the cohort closes — and the public price is already scheduled to step to €29/€197 after — does the cost of waiting one more week feel cheaper than the cost of locking in tonight?

If you said yes to any one of these, the rung that fits sits in the ladder below. If you said no to all three, the free Sunday digest is the right rhythm for now — no upgrade pressure, ever.

A free rung, a €7 rung, a €9.97/mo rung, all the way up to a €49,997/yr rung. If even one of those fits where you actually are — would you let the right rung pick itself?

Simple pricing. Free forever for the curious.

Beta pricing — Dashboard goes to €49/mo and Insider to €197/mo after launch. Founders keep their price forever.

Three doors. The free tier is enough for most solo angels and scouts. Upgrade only when filtering the full universe pays for itself.

Free

€0forever

Acceleration Watch — the Monday email investors set their calendar to.

Acceleration Watch: top 5 breakouts every Monday 09:00 UTC
Free Scout Receipts at /receipts
MCP server for Claude / Cursor
JSON / CSV / RSS public dataset

Subscribe free

The ladder doesn’t stop at the Dashboard.

€4,970 / yr

Sharp Tier

Application-gated. 8-fund cap.

€14,997 / yr

Methodology Partnership

Done-with-you. 5-fund cap.

€49,997 / yr

The Vault

Methodology source. 2-fund cap.

All three are async-only — no live calls, no in-person attendance. See the full ten-rung ladder for application links and complete value stacks.

All sectors we track

20 sectors · 140 venture-backed startups · refreshed weekly

Each sector page ranks the top startups by 14-day commit velocity change, with contributor growth and signal type. Updated every Monday at 09:00 UTC.

AI & Machine Learning

startups tracked

Startups building AI/ML infrastructure, applications, and tools.

How a late story became an earlier signal.

castle-engine

ava-labs

greenbone

You stop hearing the story late and start seeing the change earlier.

Code-Side Sourcing — a new sourcing channel for venture capital.

If commit-velocity acceleration is the most leading public signal in venture capital, then every other deal-flow source — pitch decks, AngelList, Crunchbase, warm intros — is a lagging indicator.

And why each one is wrong.

“GitHub data is just noise.”

“I have enough deal flow already.”

“Public data isn’t edge.”

5 breakout startups, every Sunday — 47 days before the deck arrives.

€1,728 of priced artefacts. €9.97 / month, locked forever.

Five sentences. If any of them lands, you’re one of us.

You do not need a persona. You need the right starting point for this week.

If you want one useful read each Sunday

If a live question is already getting expensive

If you need a workflow your team can defend

Simple pricing. Free forever for the curious.

The ladder doesn’t stop at the Dashboard.

All sectors we track

AI & Machine Learning

Fintech

Climate Tech

Developer Tools

Cybersecurity

Healthcare

EdTech

E-commerce Infrastructure

Supply Chain

Web3

Enterprise SaaS

Data Infrastructure

Robotics

Legal Tech

HR Tech

PropTech

AgTech

Gaming

Space Tech

Social & Community

Previous Quarters

Commercial evaluation

Proof

Live now

Where to go next

Weekly leaderboard

Signal of the week

Signal vocabulary

Methodology

Reproducibility

Attestations

Knowledge graph

Alternatives

Signal Intelligence

Enterprise SaaS GitHub Signal Patterns: A Sector Taxonomy for VC Sourcing

Weekly Signal Report — Q2 2026

From the research panel

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