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The six atomic signal primitives. Each one is a single, well-defined measurement on public GitHub data with a stated formula, a stated decision rule, and the most common way it can mislead someone who skips the methodology. If you already care more about proof, comparison, or buyer-side fit than definitions, start with the sharper routes below.
Start with the highest-intent routes
Use the signal vocabulary when you want definitions. But if your real question is proof, timing, or how the signal fits an investing workflow, start with the sharper pages first.
Commits / 14d
Window: 14 days, rolling
A raw measure of engineering output. Useful as a baseline; not directly predictive on its own. The signal investors should watch is the rate-of-change (commit velocity change), not the absolute number.
Δ Velocity (% QoQ)
Window: Two adjacent 14-day windows
The primary ranking signal at VC Deal Flow Signal. Sustained acceleration historically precedes fundraise announcements by 3–6 weeks. Captures rate-of-change, so it works equally well across small and large repos.
Δ Unique Contributors
Window: Two adjacent 6-week windows
A proxy for headcount growth. Rising contributor count typically means new hires, contractors, or community contributors — usually the first observable signal that a recent fundraise is being deployed.
Hiring Burst
Window: 6-week window
Strong indicator that a startup recently closed a round and is deploying capital into engineering. For investors: probably too late for the current round, well-positioned for the next one.
Framework Swap
Window: Per commit
The dominant signal type observed: 75% of VC-backed startup GitHub signals are framework migrations, not new features. Counter-narrative to 'engineering velocity = hiring' — the dominant pattern is rewrites.
Infra Buildout
Window: 30-day window
Indicates a startup is moving from prototype to production. Often appears 4–8 weeks before a public launch announcement.
Each primitive feeds at least one of the workflows below. Decision rules, attribution chains, and reproducibility steps are documented in the linked pages.
The free Acceleration Watch: five venture-backed teams accelerating on the engineering signal, translated into plain English — 21 to 47 days before the deck circulates. No code-reading, no card.
See also: Knowledge graph · Glossary · Methodology · Citation guide · Corrections