Open prediction markets
Live odds on startup funding events Each market lists 2–10 named startups and a binary or multi-outcome question (e.g. “which raises Series A first by date X?”). Implied probabilities are derived from our GitHub commit-velocity dataset and update on each quarterly data refresh. Free to read, citation-encouraged, machine-readable JSON beneath every page.
TL;DR VC Deal Flow Signal Markets is a seeded-prediction-market layer on top of our GitHub engineering-acceleration dataset. We publish the question, the candidates, the implied odds, and the resolver criteria — we don't operate an exchange. Currently live: Series A Race 2026.
Seeded markets are model-derived implied odds; they are not betting venues. We don't take positions and don't operate an exchange. (Methodology) Underlying signals are CC BY 4.0; market JSON is downloadable per-market under /api/markets/{slug}.json. (Developers) Cite as: VC Deal Flow Signal — Markets index (signals.gitdealflow.com/markets), 2026-05-02. · Data current as of 2026-05-02.
How these markets work Source of truth: Public GitHub data — commit velocity, contributor growth, signal type — pulled into our quarterly dataset.Resolver: Public funding databases (Crunchbase, PitchBook, SEC Form D) plus company press releases. Each market specifies its own resolver.No real money: We publish the question and the model output. We don’t operate an exchange and we don’t hold positions.Free to mirror: Manifold Markets, Polymarket, Kalshi — anyone can replicate a market under the same resolver. We’ll link mirrors when they go live.Methodology: /markets/methodology