Open prediction market · Resolves 2026-12-31
Live implied odds derived from GitHub commit-velocity, contributor growth, and signal classification across our Q2-2026 dataset of 4,200+ tracked startups. Free to read, machine-readable, citation encouraged. Not investment advice.
#1 · Pre-seed · AI & Machine Learning
46%
implied probability
WhyHighest composite signal in the early-stage cohort. Engineering hiring burst with contributor count rising from 3 → 15 (+400%) and commit velocity nearly tripled vs prior 14-day window. Strong primary-round candidate.
#2 · Seed · Social & Community
22%
implied probability
WhySustained 14-contributor team with a framework-migration signature consistent with platform repositioning ahead of a priced round. Velocity above 500 commits/14d is unusual for the seed-stage class.
#3 · Seed · Enterprise SaaS
16%
implied probability
WhyPIM/MDM enterprise tool with the largest contributor base in the cohort (18). Framework migration plus +38% velocity change suggests preparation for an enterprise GTM push that often coincides with Series A timing.
#4 · Seed · EdTech
10%
implied probability
WhyVelocity dipped this window but contributor count is rising (+25%) — classic post-burn restructuring pattern. Swiss commercial OSS LMS market is consolidating; raise plausible but not imminent.
#5 · Seed · Enterprise SaaS
6%
implied probability
WhySmallest velocity in the cohort but positive change with stable 14-contributor team. Distributed-systems thesis remains a Series A magnet; included as the cohort's long-shot.
0%
Residual probability that none of the five qualify by the resolution date.
Resolves YES on the first publicly disclosed primary Series A round (Crunchbase, PitchBook, SEC Form D, or company press release) closing on or before 2026-12-31, 23:59 UTC. Bridge rounds, SAFEs, and convertible notes do not count. If multiple candidates close on the same day, the higher publicly disclosed round size wins; ties broken by earlier UTC time. NO if none qualify by deadline.
Source of truth: GitHub commit velocity, contributor growth, and signal classification from VC Deal Flow Signal's Q2-2026 dataset (4,200+ tracked startups). Implied odds are model output, not investment advice. See full methodology at /markets/methodology.
We publish the question and the implied odds. We don’t operate an exchange. Mirrors below — none involve real money.
Press, newsletters, and research notes welcome. Suggested citation:
VC Deal Flow Signal — Series A Race 2026. Live implied odds, signals.gitdealflow.com/markets/series-a-race-2026, 2026-05-02. Machine-readable: signals.gitdealflow.com/api/markets/series-a-race-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).
Press kit: /press · Methodology: /markets/methodology · Raw signals API: /developers
Not investment advice. Implied probabilities are model output from a public dataset; they are not a recommendation to fund, short, or otherwise transact in any of the listed companies. The author and publisher do not hold positions in the candidate startups listed above and have no commercial relationship with them as of 2026-05-02.