{"$schema":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/markets/schema.json","generated_at":"2026-05-03T18:19:09.488Z","license":"CC BY 4.0","cite_as":"VC Deal Flow Signal — Series A Race 2026 (signals.gitdealflow.com/markets/series-a-race-2026), as of 2026-05-03.","market":{"slug":"series-a-race-2026","question":"Which of these 5 GitHub-flagged startups raises Series A first by Dec 31, 2026?","short_name":"Series A Race 2026","category":"Venture funding","opened_on":"2026-05-03","resolves_on":"2026-12-31","resolver":"Resolves YES on the first publicly disclosed primary Series A round (Crunchbase, PitchBook, SEC Form D, or company press release) closing on or before 2026-12-31, 23:59 UTC. Bridge rounds, SAFEs, and convertible notes do not count. If multiple candidates close on the same day, the higher publicly disclosed round size wins; ties broken by earlier UTC time. NO if none qualify by deadline.","methodology_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/markets/methodology","source_of_truth":"GitHub commit velocity, contributor growth, and signal classification from VC Deal Flow Signal's Q2-2026 dataset (4,200+ tracked startups). Implied odds are model output, not investment advice.","candidates":[{"name":"zapplyjobs","display_name":"Zapply Jobs","website_url":"https://zapply.jobs","github_url":"https://github.com/zapplyjobs","stage":"Pre-seed","sector":"AI & Machine Learning","sector_slug":"ai-ml","signal_type":"Engineering hiring burst","commit_velocity_14d":1694,"commit_velocity_change":"+82%","contributors":15,"contributor_growth":"+400%","new_repos":0,"implied_probability":0.46,"rationale":"Highest composite signal in the early-stage cohort. Engineering hiring burst with contributor count rising from 3 → 15 (+400%) and commit velocity nearly tripled vs prior 14-day window. Strong primary-round candidate.","profile_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/startup/zapplyjobs"},{"name":"bakaphp","display_name":"Kanvas (BakaPHP)","website_url":"https://kanvas.dev","github_url":"https://github.com/bakaphp","stage":"Seed","sector":"Social & Community","sector_slug":"social-community","signal_type":"Framework migration","commit_velocity_14d":598,"commit_velocity_change":"+32%","contributors":14,"contributor_growth":"+8%","new_repos":0,"implied_probability":0.22,"rationale":"Sustained 14-contributor team with a framework-migration signature consistent with platform repositioning ahead of a priced round. Velocity above 500 commits/14d is unusual for the seed-stage class.","profile_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/startup/bakaphp"},{"name":"atrocore","display_name":"AtroCore","website_url":"https://www.atrocore.com","github_url":"https://github.com/atrocore","stage":"Seed","sector":"Enterprise SaaS","sector_slug":"enterprise-saas","signal_type":"Framework migration","commit_velocity_14d":116,"commit_velocity_change":"+38%","contributors":18,"contributor_growth":"+4%","new_repos":0,"implied_probability":0.16,"rationale":"PIM/MDM enterprise tool with the largest contributor base in the cohort (18). Framework migration plus +38% velocity change suggests preparation for an enterprise GTM push that often coincides with Series A timing.","profile_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/startup/atrocore"},{"name":"OpenOLAT","display_name":"OpenOLAT","website_url":"https://www.openolat.org","github_url":"https://github.com/OpenOLAT","stage":"Seed","sector":"EdTech","sector_slug":"edtech","signal_type":"Framework migration","commit_velocity_14d":102,"commit_velocity_change":"-33%","contributors":15,"contributor_growth":"+25%","new_repos":0,"implied_probability":0.1,"rationale":"Velocity dipped this window but contributor count is rising (+25%) — classic post-burn restructuring pattern. Swiss commercial OSS LMS market is consolidating; raise plausible but not imminent.","profile_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/startup/openolat"},{"name":"Lonero-Team","display_name":"Lonero","website_url":"https://lonero.org","github_url":"https://github.com/Lonero-Team","stage":"Seed","sector":"Enterprise SaaS","sector_slug":"enterprise-saas","signal_type":"Framework migration","commit_velocity_14d":32,"commit_velocity_change":"+28%","contributors":14,"contributor_growth":"+0%","new_repos":0,"implied_probability":0.06,"rationale":"Smallest velocity in the cohort but positive change with stable 14-contributor team. Distributed-systems thesis remains a Series A magnet; included as the cohort's long-shot.","profile_url":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/startup/lonero-team"}],"no_resolution":{"label":"None of the five raises by Dec 31, 2026","impliedProbability":0},"external_mirrors":[{"platform":"Manifold Markets","status":"draft","playMoneyOnly":true,"url":null,"note":"Free play-money mirror, no KYC. Draft staged in distribution/markets/manifold-series-a-race-2026.md; user posts manually under @data_nerd handle."},{"platform":"Polymarket","status":"not-applicable","url":null,"note":"Real-money market creation requires UMA bond + 24h dispute window. Out of scope until a venue adopts the question; we do not propose markets where we hold the source-of-truth dataset (resolver conflict)."},{"platform":"Kalshi","status":"submitted-as-suggestion","url":null,"note":"Kalshi listings are exchange-curated. Suggestion form lives at kalshi.com/help; we do not list ourselves."}]}}