Day 10: Score candidate #2 — the obvious one

The startup you already liked — does the framework agree?

Yesterday

Yesterday you ran the boring one. Today is the obvious one — and the most likely place for the framework to disagree with you.

Why this signal matters

Confirmation bias is loudest on the candidates you already feel good about. Running the composite on the 'obvious yes' is where you'll either build trust in the framework or learn that one of your priors is wrong. Both are useful.

The 5-minute exercise

1Open candidate #2 GitHub org. Same six signals, same order.
2Try to score honestly — pretend you've never heard of the founder.
3Note any signal where the composite disagrees with your prior.
4Total composite. Compare to your gut prediction from Day 8.

What you’re filtering for

A composite score and the largest delta between gut and framework. If they agree, write 'no surprise.' If they don't, write the one signal that surprised you.

Edge case

A 'darling' that scores 2/6. This happens. Usually because the founder is great but the engineering org is one person — the bet is on the founder, not the team. Note that explicitly.

Bonus

If your gut said 5/6 and the composite says 5/6, the prior was right but the framework didn't add value. If gut said 5/6 and composite says 3/6, you just dodged a bullet.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow: candidate #3, the wildcard. This is where the composite earns its keep — calling something your gut couldn't read.

Curriculum: /challenge · Methodology: /methodology · Paper: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558