Loading...
One 2×2 · 20 sectors · scored on engineering-signal data
Every sector we track gets the same two scores: how expensive it is to credibly build inside, and how fast the deals close once engineering acceleration shows up. Two numbers, one 2×2, twenty sectors. The four quadrants are the honest answer to the question every operator and every angel asks themselves inside the same week.
The methodology re-uses the same engineering-acceleration data that powers /predicted and /startups-to-watch. Cost-to-build estimates blend capital intensity, regulatory drag, and hardware overhead.
Build quadrant
Low cost-to-build, high deal-velocity. An indie founder can credibly compete here — and probably should, before the round becomes competitive.
Fund quadrant
High cost-to-build, high deal-velocity. The market rewards capital and rewards it fast — sourcing inside the pre-fundraise window matters more than picking the right sub-niche.
Wait quadrant
High cost-to-build, low deal-velocity. Capital-trap territory — stand down, partner with an incumbent, or stage cheques against milestones instead of announcements.
Avoid quadrant
Low cost-to-build, low deal-velocity. Cheap to ship, slow to close — most founders should re-route into adjacent sectors with cleaner deal mechanics.
AI/ML is the most expensive thing to build and the fastest thing to fund.
cost 78 · velocity 96
Fintech rewards capital and patience, not weekend builders.
cost 72 · velocity 58
Climate tech is finally fundable software — but only the software half.
cost 68 · velocity 52
Dev tools is the single best build-quadrant sector on this site.
cost 28 · velocity 84
Cyber is the most reliable mid-velocity fund quadrant on the site.
cost 56 · velocity 74
Healthcare is the patient capital quadrant — and most founders forget the patient.
cost 80 · velocity 46
EdTech is cheap to ship and slow to monetise — most founders should reroute.
cost 32 · velocity 38
E-commerce infra is a clean build quadrant — adjacent layers, never the platform.
cost 36 · velocity 62
Supply chain is the slowest-moving sector we track — bet on capital, not on velocity.
cost 58 · velocity 34
Web3 is cheap to build and slow to close — the most over-tagged sector on the site.
cost 42 · velocity 32
Enterprise SaaS is the most predictable fund quadrant — and the most overlooked build quadrant.
cost 38 · velocity 68
Data infrastructure is fund quadrant — but the indie wedge inside it is the best on the site.
cost 64 · velocity 82
Robotics is the most capital-intensive sector — wait quadrant for almost everyone.
cost 92 · velocity 44
Legal tech is one of the cleanest build-quadrant plays of the AI cycle.
cost 34 · velocity 58
HR tech is buildable, mid-velocity, and the cleanest sector for distribution-led founders.
cost 30 · velocity 52
PropTech is the slowest fund-quadrant adjacent we track — avoid the indie path.
cost 54 · velocity 36
AgTech is hardware-heavy, slow, and only fundable inside a dedicated thesis.
cost 74 · velocity 38
Gaming is the most hit-driven sector we track — neither quadrant is a default.
cost 48 · velocity 42
Space tech is the only sector where the cheque needs nine zeros — wait quadrant for everyone else.
cost 96 · velocity 36
Social-and-community is the cheapest sector to build and the hardest to monetise — build with audience or skip it.
cost 26 · velocity 44
How the scores are built
Cost-to-buildis a 1–100 score blending realistic capital requirements, regulatory drag, hardware overhead, and team-quality bar for an indie founder attempting to ship a credible first product. A score of 1 means “a weekend on a laptop”; a score of 100 means a multi-year multi-million-euro hard-tech bet.
Deal-velocity is a 1–100 score for the rate at which deals close inside the pre-fundraise window we measure across the site. A score of 1 means the sector is functionally dormant; 100 means rounds compress to days once engineering acceleration shows up. The threshold for each quadrant is 50.
Read the full methodology at /methodology and the per-signal definitions at /signals.
The same data, weekly
The 2×2 above is the strategic view. The weekly Signal Report is the tactical one — five breakout startups ranked by GitHub engineering acceleration, every Monday, free.