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Engineering acceleration
The rule that an acceleration breakout must persist into a second 14-day window before VC Deal Flow Signal treats it as actionable. The 14-day window is responsive but volatile, so single-period spikes from hackathons, launch sprints, or one new contributor onboarding are common. Two-period confirmation removes most of that noise while keeping the signal early enough to precede a fundraise by three to six weeks. The same rule is applied to contributor-growth signals.
Metrics, signal types, and decision rules from the methodology.
The named mechanism behind VC Deal Flow Signal.
The total number of commits to a startup's most active public GitHub repository over a rolling 14-day window.
The percentage change in commit velocity compared to the preceding 14-day window.
A sustained increase in a startup's engineering output relative to its own historical baseline.
Any data-driven indicator that helps an investor identify a promising startup before traditional deal sourcing channels surface it.
The change in the number of unique contributors to a startup's GitHub repository over time.
A signal type indicating that a startup's contributor growth rate exceeds 50% in a short window.
A signal type indicating that a startup has created three or more new public repositories in 30 days.
This definition is published under CC BY 4.0. Cite as:
The Data Nerd. "Two-Period Confirmation." VC Deal Flow Signal Glossary, https://signals.gitdealflow.com/define/two-period-confirmation.
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