{"schema_version":"1.0.0","mascot_name":"Data Nerd","bible_page":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd/social","hub_page":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd","last_updated":"2026-05-09","handles":{"twitter":"@data_nerd","instagram":"@gitdealflow.datanerd","facebook":"GitDealFlowDataNerd","tiktok":"@data_nerd_signals","linkedin":"GitDealFlow","youtube":"@gitdealflow","threads":"@gitdealflow.datanerd","bluesky":"@datanerd.gitdealflow.com","substack_notes":"@gitdealflow"},"handle_status":{"twitter":"live","instagram":"reserved","facebook":"reserved","tiktok":"reserved","linkedin":"live","youtube":"live","threads":"reserved","bluesky":"live","substack_notes":"live"},"visual_identity":{"avatarPath":"/data-nerd-avatar.svg","bgColor":"#0a0e1a","accentPrimary":"#38bdf8","accentPositive":"#34d399","accentWarning":"#fbbf24","accentNegative":"#f87171","fontMono":"ui-monospace, 'JetBrains Mono', 'Courier New', monospace","fontSans":"system-ui, -apple-system, sans-serif"},"voice":{"provider":"Cartesia","voiceName":"Theo","rate":0.95,"pitch":0,"style":"neutral-confident","pronunciationOverrides":[{"from":"GitDealFlow","to":"git deal flow"},{"from":"SSRN","to":"S S R N"},{"from":"MCP","to":"M C P"},{"from":"API","to":"A P I"},{"from":"PR","to":"P R"},{"from":"VC","to":"V C"},{"from":"GP","to":"G P"},{"from":"LP","to":"L P"}]},"tone":{"primary":["Direct — no filler, no jargon stack","Numerate — every claim has a number behind it","Self-deprecating about the framework, not the user","Skeptical of consensus narratives","Specific about edge cases — frameworks fail and we say where"],"avoid":["Hype words: 'unlock', 'leverage', 'synergy', 'paradigm', 'disruptive'","Empty enthusiasm: '!!!', 'amazing', 'incredible', 'mind-blowing'","Authority cosplay: 'as a VC', 'in my experience', 'I've seen 100s of...'","Vague metaphors: 'the future of', 'the next wave', 'unprecedented'","Anything that requires the founder's identity to be credible"],"rules":["Open with the number, not the conclusion. ('38% close-within-47-days' before 'this works'.)","If you can't cite the data, drop the claim.","When the framework fails, say so. Failure modes are credibility.","Never use 'we' to mean 'the team' — 'we' is the framework + the data + the methodology paper.","Founder ('I') stays anonymous. The mascot ('the framework' / 'the data') does the talking."]},"pillars":[{"slug":"signal-of-the-week","label":"Signal of the Week","target_ratio":0.3,"description":"One named startup, one signal, one 30-second walkthrough. Always public-data only. Always with the GitHub URL.","example_post":"Signal of the week: ShadcnUI's 0.42 commit-velocity ratio. 14d ÷ 90d = 1.62. Above the 1.5 threshold for the third week running. github.com/shadcn-ui/ui — Insights → Pulse to verify."},{"slug":"framework-explainer","label":"Framework Explainer","target_ratio":0.25,"description":"Single-signal explainer with the 5-min procedure. Designed to be screenshotted/saved.","example_post":"How to read a dependents graph in 60 seconds: Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents. Most investors don't know this page exists. It's the cheapest external-adoption proxy."},{"slug":"data-point","label":"Data Point","target_ratio":0.2,"description":"One number from the panel. Always cited (SSRN id 6606558). Always with implication.","example_post":"Startups that closed had a contributor-diversity Gini of 0.34 at month -3. Startups that didn't: 0.61. The shape of the codebase matters more than the size of it."},{"slug":"calibration-case","label":"Calibration Case","target_ratio":0.15,"description":"Look back at a recently-funded startup. What did the framework say at month -3?","example_post":"Vercel's Series E announced 2026-04. Composite at month -3: 5/6. The only miss: dependents graph (no public OSS). Framework would have flagged this round before the headline."},{"slug":"operator-prompt","label":"Operator Prompt","target_ratio":0.1,"description":"Direct ask of the audience — 'try this on a startup you know'. Conversion-driving.","example_post":"Try the manual procedure on one startup you almost-invested in. Gut prediction first, then the score. Reply with the delta."}],"cadence":{"twitter":"Daily — one Signal of the Week + one Data Point + one Operator Prompt across the day","linkedin":"3×/week — long-form Signal of the Week + one Calibration Case + one Framework Explainer","instagram":"3×/week — carousel format. Signal of the Week (Mon), Framework Explainer (Wed), Calibration Case (Fri)","facebook":"1×/week — repurpose the Wednesday Instagram carousel as a Facebook post with extended caption","tiktok":"1×/week — 60-second synthetic-voice walkthrough. Reuses the YouTube Short audio.","youtube_shorts":"1×/week (Wed) — Data Nerd Brief, character-shaped Short via existing tools/video pipeline","threads_bluesky":"Mirror of Twitter. Same content, posted via the existing Substack Notes + ATproto pipeline."},"posting_hours_utc":{"twitter":["13:00","16:30","19:00"],"linkedin":["13:00","17:00"],"instagram":["18:00"],"facebook":["14:00"],"tiktok":["19:00"],"threads_bluesky":["13:00","16:30"]},"hashtag_bank":{"primary":["#GitDealFlow","#DataNerd","#CodeSideSourcing"],"vertical":["#VentureCapital","#AngelInvesting","#StartupSourcing","#AlternativeData","#DevTools"],"topical":["#GitHubSignals","#FundraisingSignals","#OpenSource","#TechStartups","#FundManagement"],"reach":["#startupinvesting","#vcfunding","#techinvestors","#angelinvestor","#deeptechvc","#fundraising","#startuplife","#devtech"]},"artefacts":{"avatar_svg":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd-avatar.svg","avatar_png_1024":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd-avatar-1024.png","avatar_png_512":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd-avatar-512.png","cover_image_2400x1260":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd-cover.png","voice_sample_mp3":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/audio/data-nerd-voice-sample.mp3","style_guide_pdf":"https://signals.gitdealflow.com/data-nerd-style-guide.pdf"},"sample_batch":{"total":5,"pillar_mix":{"signal-of-the-week":1,"framework-explainer":1,"data-point":1,"operator-prompt":1,"calibration-case":1},"by_primary_channel":{"twitter":3,"instagram":1,"linkedin":1},"posts":[{"id":"2026-05-12-01","pillar":"signal-of-the-week","primary":"twitter","cross_post_to":["linkedin","instagram","threads","bluesky"],"scheduled_iso_date":"2026-05-12","bodies":{"twitter":"Signal of the week: ShadcnUI's 14d/90d commit-velocity ratio is 1.62 — third consecutive week above 1.5.\n\nPublic-data only. github.com/shadcn-ui/ui → Insights → Pulse → 1 month, then 3 months. Compute (weekly × 4) ÷ monthly.\n\nComposite is 5/6. signals.gitdealflow.com/predicted?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","linkedin":"**Signal of the week:** ShadcnUI's commit-velocity ratio is at 1.62 — the third consecutive week above the 1.5 acceleration threshold.\n\nWhat that means in plain English: the team is shipping ~62% more in the last 14 days than their 90-day baseline. Sustained acceleration over 14+ days is the cleanest leading indicator we track.\n\nThe procedure to verify yourself (5 minutes):\n1. Open github.com/shadcn-ui/ui\n2. Click Insights → Pulse → 1 month. Note weekly + monthly commits.\n3. Click 3 months. Note quarterly commits.\n4. Compute (weekly × 4) ÷ monthly. If > 1.3, accelerating. If > 1.5, sharply accelerating.\n\nThe full 7-signal composite scores them at 5/6. The only miss: their dependents graph isn't formally exposed because they're a UI library distributed via copy-paste rather than npm. That's a known framework edge case, not a real negative signal.\n\nBacktest: composite of 5/6 with sustained 14d acceleration → ~38% chance of a venture round closing within 47 days. Roughly 5× the base rate.\n\nRead the live ranking: signals.gitdealflow.com/predicted?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05\n\nMethodology paper (CC BY 4.0): ssrn.com/abstract=6606558","instagram":"Signal of the week 📊\n\nShadcnUI — commit velocity 1.62\n3rd week running above the 1.5 threshold.\n\nComposite: 5/6\nRead it yourself: insights → pulse → 1 month\ngithub.com/shadcn-ui/ui\n\nLink in bio for the live ranking.\n\n#GitDealFlow #DataNerd #CodeSideSourcing #VentureCapital #AngelInvesting #GitHubSignals #StartupSourcing #AlternativeData","facebook":"Signal of the week: ShadcnUI is showing a 14d/90d commit-velocity ratio of 1.62 — the third consecutive week above the 1.5 acceleration threshold.\n\nThe framework backtest: composite of 5/6 with sustained 14-day acceleration → ~38% chance of a venture round closing within 47 days.\n\nYou can verify the velocity number yourself in 5 minutes using only github.com (no API, no tool). The procedure is in the free 30-day course at signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05.\n\nRead the live ranking: signals.gitdealflow.com/predicted","threads":"Signal of the week: ShadcnUI 14d/90d commit-velocity = 1.62. Third week above 1.5.\n\nPublic-data only. github.com/shadcn-ui/ui → Insights → Pulse.\n\nComposite: 5/6. signals.gitdealflow.com/predicted","bluesky":"Signal of the week: ShadcnUI 14d/90d = 1.62. Third week above 1.5.\n\nVerify on Insights → Pulse.\n\nComposite 5/6. signals.gitdealflow.com/predicted"},"image_spec":{"type":"carousel","slides":[{"headline":"Signal of the Week","body":"ShadcnUI · 1.62 ratio · week 3 above threshold"},{"headline":"How to verify","body":"Insights → Pulse → 1 month, then 3 months"},{"headline":"The math","body":"(weekly × 4) ÷ monthly · above 1.3 = accelerating"},{"headline":"Composite score","body":"5/6 · 38% close-within-47d (5× base rate)"},{"headline":"Read the framework","body":"Free 30-day course · link in bio"}],"altText":"Five-slide carousel explaining ShadcnUI's commit velocity signal of the week."}},{"id":"2026-05-13-02","pillar":"framework-explainer","primary":"instagram","cross_post_to":["linkedin","twitter","facebook"],"scheduled_iso_date":"2026-05-13","bodies":{"instagram":"How to read a dependents graph in 60 seconds 🔍\n\nMost investors don't know GitHub exposes this page.\n\n→ Open the org's flagship repo\n→ Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents\n→ Count external dependents (not the org's own repos)\n\nThe cheapest external-adoption proxy that exists. A few hundred external dependents on a dev-tools startup = strong PMF signal regardless of revenue.\n\nEdge case: enterprise/private package registries don't show. That's a sign of paid distribution, not weakness.\n\nSave this. Run it on the next dev-tools startup that pitches you.\n\n#GitDealFlow #DataNerd #CodeSideSourcing #VentureCapital #AngelInvesting #GitHubSignals #StartupSourcing #AlternativeData","twitter":"How to read a dependents graph in 60 seconds — most investors don't know GitHub exposes this page.\n\n→ Repo home → Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents\n→ Count external dependents (excl. the org's own repos)\n\n100+ external = strong PMF signal regardless of revenue.","linkedin":"**How to read a dependents graph in 60 seconds.**\n\nMost investors I talk to don't know GitHub exposes this page. It's tucked under Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents and it shows you every public repo that depends on this code.\n\nIt's the cheapest external-adoption proxy that exists.\n\nThe procedure:\n1. Open the org's flagship repo (the most-starred one, or the one in the README).\n2. Click Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents.\n3. Count the external dependents — repos that aren't part of the same org.\n4. For a dev-tools startup, 50+ external dependents is meaningful. 200+ is strong.\n\nWhat the framework filters for: external usage that the founder doesn't have to talk about for the data to exist. Strong PMF signal regardless of revenue.\n\nThe edge case worth knowing: enterprise teams using private npm or pip registries won't show up. The dependents page being empty isn't a no-signal. It can be a \"private distribution\" signal — and that's a different kind of moat.\n\nThe full procedure for all seven signals is in the free 30-day course: signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","facebook":"Framework explainer: how to read a dependents graph in 60 seconds.\n\nMost investors don't know GitHub exposes this page. Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents shows every public repo that depends on this code.\n\nIt's the cheapest external-adoption proxy that exists. 100+ external dependents on a dev-tools startup = strong product-market-fit signal regardless of revenue.\n\nThe full 7-signal procedure (free, no card): signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05"},"image_spec":{"type":"carousel","slides":[{"headline":"Most investors miss this","body":"GitHub exposes a per-repo dependents page"},{"headline":"Where it lives","body":"Insights → Dependency graph → Dependents"},{"headline":"What to look for","body":"External dependents only — not the org's own repos"},{"headline":"Threshold","body":"50+ meaningful · 200+ strong (dev-tools)"},{"headline":"Edge case","body":"Empty page can mean private distribution = real moat"},{"headline":"Full framework","body":"30-day course, free · link in bio"}],"altText":"Six-slide carousel explaining how to read GitHub's dependents graph."}},{"id":"2026-05-14-03","pillar":"data-point","primary":"twitter","cross_post_to":["linkedin","threads","bluesky","instagram"],"scheduled_iso_date":"2026-05-14","bodies":{"twitter":"Data point from the panel:\n\nStartups that closed: contributor-diversity Gini = 0.34 at month -3.\nStartups that did not close: 0.61.\n\nThe shape of the codebase matters more than the size of it. SSRN id 6606558.","linkedin":"**Data point from the 219-round panel.**\n\nStartups that closed a venture round: contributor-diversity Gini coefficient of 0.34 at month -3 before the announce.\n\nStartups that did not close: 0.61.\n\nTranslation: more concentrated codebases (one or two committers doing everything) close fewer rounds than distributed codebases.\n\nThe mechanism is straightforward. A 4-person codebase with no single committer dominating is funding a real engineering team. A 1-person codebase is funding a salary. The contract value, the dilution math, and the diligence story are all different — even if the headline metrics look similar.\n\nThis is signal #2 of the seven we publish. The procedure to read it yourself runs in 5 minutes from any GitHub org's Insights → Contributors page.\n\nMethodology paper: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558 (CC BY 4.0)\nFree 30-day course: signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","instagram":"📈 Data point from the panel:\n\nClosed rounds → Gini 0.34\nDidn't close → Gini 0.61\n\nThe shape of the codebase matters more than the size of it.\n\n(SSRN id 6606558)\n\n#GitDealFlow #DataNerd #CodeSideSourcing #VentureCapital #AngelInvesting #GitHubSignals #StartupSourcing #AlternativeData","threads":"Data point from the panel:\n\nClosed: Gini 0.34\nDidn't close: Gini 0.61\n\nShape > size. SSRN 6606558","bluesky":"Closed rounds: Gini 0.34 at month -3.\nDidn't close: 0.61.\n\nShape of the codebase > size of it."}},{"id":"2026-05-15-04","pillar":"operator-prompt","primary":"twitter","cross_post_to":["linkedin","threads","bluesky"],"scheduled_iso_date":"2026-05-15","bodies":{"twitter":"Try this on one startup you almost-invested in:\n\n1. Gut prediction first — score 0-6 from memory.\n2. Then run the 5-min composite.\n3. Reply with the delta.\n\nMost useful artifact you'll produce this week. Procedure: signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","linkedin":"**One operator prompt for your weekend.**\n\nPick a startup you almost-invested in last quarter. Doesn't have to be high-stakes — just one where you remember saying \"I'll think about it\" and then didn't.\n\nStep 1: write down a gut prediction. Score 0-6 from memory, no looking. What's your guess?\n\nStep 2: run the 5-minute composite on their GitHub org. Insights → Pulse for commit velocity, Insights → Contributors for diversity, Insights → Dependency graph for external adoption, README history for freshness, Repositories → Newest for platform buildout, Issues + PRs for ratio.\n\nStep 3: compute the delta between your gut and the composite.\n\nThe artifact you produce — a one-line note with org + gut + composite + delta — is the most useful sourcing-process exercise you'll do this week. It calibrates your gut against the framework, in both directions. Sometimes the framework is wrong; sometimes your gut was. Both are useful.\n\nIf you reply with the delta (DM is fine), we're collecting cases for the next iteration of the curriculum.\n\nProcedure: signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","threads":"Try this:\n\n1. Pick a startup you almost-invested in.\n2. Gut prediction (0-6) first.\n3. Run the 5-min composite.\n4. Note the delta.\n\nMost useful artifact you'll produce this week.","bluesky":"One weekend prompt:\n\n1. Pick a startup you almost-invested in.\n2. Gut prediction first (0-6).\n3. Run 5-min composite.\n4. Note the delta."}},{"id":"2026-05-16-05","pillar":"calibration-case","primary":"linkedin","cross_post_to":["twitter","instagram","facebook"],"scheduled_iso_date":"2026-05-16","bodies":{"linkedin":"**Calibration case — a recently-funded round, scored at month -3.**\n\nVercel announced their Series E in 2026-04. We backtested their composite as it would have read 90 days before the announce.\n\nScore at month -3: **5/6.**\n\n→ Commit velocity ratio: 1.41 (above 1.3 threshold) ✅\n→ Contributor diversity: top contributor 38% of commits, 7+ active contributors ✅\n→ Dependents graph: 280+ external dependents on Next.js alone ✅\n→ README freshness: substantive diff at -42 days ✅\n→ New repo creation: 4 platform repos in last 30 days ✅\n→ Issue-to-PR ratio: 0.9 — below the 1.5 threshold (the only miss)\n\nThe miss on issue-to-PR is interesting because it suggests the team was fielding inbound faster than they could ship — the kind of \"we need the round to hire\" moment that often precedes a growth-stage close.\n\nComposite framework would have flagged this round before the headline. ~5× lift over the base rate at month -3.\n\nCalibration runs against known rounds are how you build trust in the framework. Run one a week and the score becomes more useful than the headline.\n\nMethodology: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558\nFree 30-day course: signals.gitdealflow.com/challenge?utm_source=social&utm_medium=mascot&utm_campaign=batch-2026-05","twitter":"Calibration case: Vercel Series E 2026-04.\n\nComposite at month -3: 5/6.\nOnly miss: issue-to-PR (0.9 vs 1.5 threshold).\n\nFramework would have flagged this round before the headline. ~5× base rate.","instagram":"🎯 Calibration case\n\nVercel Series E (April 2026)\nBacktested at month -3: 5/6\n\nOnly miss: issue-to-PR ratio (suggested inbound > shipping speed)\n\nFramework would have flagged this round 90 days early.\n\n#GitDealFlow #DataNerd #CodeSideSourcing #VentureCapital #AngelInvesting #GitHubSignals #StartupSourcing #AlternativeData","facebook":"Calibration case — Vercel's Series E announced April 2026, backtested at month -3.\n\nThe composite read 5/6 ninety days before the announce. The only miss was the issue-to-PR ratio (0.9 vs the 1.5 healthy threshold) which suggested inbound was outpacing shipping — the kind of \"we need the round to hire\" moment that often precedes a growth-stage close.\n\nCalibration runs are how you build trust in the framework. Run one a week. SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=6606558"}}]},"repurpose_rule":"All content originates as a Data Nerd post. The framework + the data + the methodology paper do the talking. The founder's identity stays anonymous.","license":"CC BY 4.0 — methodology paper at ssrn.com/abstract=6606558"}